Association Between Diagnosis Code Expansion and Changes in 30-Day Risk-Adjusted Outcomes for Cardiovascular Diseases

BACKGROUND In January 2011, Centers for Medicare and Medicaid Services expanded the number of inpatient diagnosis codes from 9 to 25, which may influence comorbidity counts and risk-adjusted outcome rates for studies spanning January 2011. This study examines the association between (1) limiting versus not limiting diagnosis codes after 2011, (2) using inpatient-only versus inpatient and outpatient data, and (3) using logistic regression versus the Centers for Medicare and Medicaid Services risk-standardized methodology and changes in risk-adjusted outcomes. METHODS AND RESULTS Using 100% Medicare inpatient and outpatient files between January 2009 and December 2013, we created 2 cohorts of fee-for-service beneficiaries aged ≥65 years. The acute myocardial infarction cohort and the heart failure cohort had 578 728 and 1 595 069 hospitalizations, respectively. We calculate comorbidities using (1) inpatient-only limited diagnoses, (2) inpatient-only unlimited diagnoses, (3) inpatient and outpatient limited diagnoses, and (4) inpatient and outpatient unlimited diagnoses. Across both cohorts, International Classification of Diseases, Ninth Revision (ICD-9) diagnoses and hierarchical condition categories increased after 2011. When outpatient data were included, there were no significant differences in risk-adjusted readmission rates using logistic regression or the Centers for Medicare and Medicaid Services risk standardization. A difference-in-differences analysis of risk-adjusted readmission trends before versus after 2011 found that no significant differences between limited and unlimited models for either cohort. CONCLUSIONS For studies that span 2011, researchers should consider limiting the number of inpatient diagnosis codes to 9 and/or including outpatient data to minimize the impact of the code expansion on comorbidity counts. However, the 2011 code expansion does not appear to significantly affect risk-adjusted readmission rate estimates using either logistic or risk-standardization models or when using or excluding outpatient data.