Induced abortion and COVID-19 as contributing factors to declining fertility in Sardinia

Decreasing fertility implies considerable public health, societal, political, and international consequences. Induced abortion (IA) and the recent COVID-19 pandemic can be contributing factors to it but these have not been adequately studied so far. The purpose of this paper is to explore the relation of IA incidence and the COVID-19 pandemic to declining rates of delivery, as per our Sardinian experience.

We analyzed the registered data from the official Italian statistics surveys of deliveries and IA in the last 10 years from 2011 to 2020 in Sardinia.

A total of 106,557 deliveries occurred and a progressive decrease in the birth rate has been observed. A total of 18,250 IA occurred and a progressive decline has been observed here as well. The ratio between IA and deliveries remained constant over the decade. Between 2011 and 2019 a variation of -4.32% was observed for IA while in the last year, during the COVID-19 pandemic the decrease of the procedures was equal to -12.30%. For the deliveries, a mean variation of the -4.8% was observed between the 2011 and the 2019 while in the last year, during the COVID-19 pandemic the decrease was about -9%. Considering the about 30% reduction of live births between 2011 and 2020, there is an almost proportional reduction in IA.

Public policy responses to decreasing fertility, especially pronatalist ones, would be provided with evidence base about trends in delivery and IA and women's decision making.