Prediction of late allograft dysfunction following liver transplantation by immunological blood biomarkers

An accelerated course of hepatic fibrosis may occur in liver transplantation (LT) patients despite normal or slightly abnormal liver blood tests.

To identify screening tools based on blood biomarkers to predict late allograft dysfunction in LT recipients.

174 LT recipients were enrolled. Liver biopsy, liver functional tests, cytokine quantitation in serum, as well as soluble MHC class I polypeptide-related sequence A and B (sMICA/sMICB) and soluble UL16 binding protein 2 (sULBP2) were performed.

Patients with late graft dysfunction had a significantly higher donor age, lower albumin level, higher alanine (ALT) and aspartate aminotransferase (AST), gamma-glutamyl transpeptidase (GGT), total bilirubin and alkaline phosphatase (ALP), higher sMICA, sULBP2, higher interleukin (IL) 6, interferon γ and lower IL10 in serum as compared to recipients without allograft dysfunction. In order to provide a better statistical accuracy for discriminating 5-year allograft dysfunction from other less progressive subtype of allograft injury, we established a predictive model, based on 7 parameters (serum ALP, ALT, AST, GGT, sMICA, IL6 and albumin) which provided an Area Under the Receiver Operating Characteristics (AUROC) curve of 0.905.

Blood-based biomarkers can significantly improve prediction of late liver allograft outcome in LT patients. The new developed score comprising serum parameters, with an excellent AUROC, can be reliably used for diagnosing late allograft dysfunction in transplanted patients.