Related Experiment Video
Updated: Oct 24, 2025
04:57
Establishing a Competing Risk Regression Nomogram Model for Survival Data
Published on: October 23, 2020
10.4K
A nomogram predicting severe COVID-19 based on a large study cohort from China
Songqiao Liu1, Huanyuan Luo2, Zhengqing Lei3
1Jiangsu Provincial Key Laboratory of Critical Care Medicine, Department of Critical Care Medicine, Zhongda Hospital, School of Medicine, Southeast University, Nanjing 210009, China.
The American Journal of Emergency Medicine
|August 15, 2021
Summary
A new nomogram accurately predicts severe coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) risk using age, lymphocyte count, and lung opacity. This tool aids clinicians in early patient stratification and treatment for better outcomes.
Area of Science:
- Medical Informatics
- Epidemiology
- Clinical Prediction Models
Background:
- Accurate prediction of severe coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) is crucial for timely intervention.
- Existing prediction models for severe COVID-19 are limited by various biases.
- Development of a reliable, personalized risk prediction tool for severe COVID-19 is needed.
Purpose of the Study:
- To construct and validate a nomogram for accurate, personalized prediction of severe COVID-19 risk.
- To identify key predictors for severe COVID-19.
- To provide a tool for clinical decision support in managing COVID-19 patients.
Main Methods:
- Retrospective derivation and validation cohorts from multiple centers in China.
- Development of a nomogram using logistic regression analysis to identify predictors of severe COVID-19.
- Evaluation of nomogram performance using Area Under the Curve (AUC) and calibration analysis.
Main Results:
- Age, lymphocyte count, and pulmonary opacity score were identified as significant predictors.
- The nomogram demonstrated good discrimination in both derivation (AUC 0.93) and validation (AUC 0.85) cohorts.
- The nomogram showed satisfactory calibration, indicating reliable agreement between predicted and observed risks.
Conclusions:
- The developed nomogram is a reliable tool for assessing severe COVID-19 probability.
- This nomogram can assist clinicians in patient stratification.
- Early and optimal therapeutic interventions for COVID-19 may be facilitated by this tool.
Related Concept Videos
01:23Dosage Regimen Designs: Nomograms and Tabulations
41
Nomograms and tabulations are vital tools used by clinicians to design accurate and individualized dosage regimens. These instruments provide a straightforward method for adjusting dosages based on individual patient characteristics, including age, weight, and physiological condition. The foundation of a drug's nomogram is population pharmacokinetic data collected and analyzed using specific models. This data simplifies complex equations, presenting them diagrammatically or tabularly for easy...
41
01:27Chronic Obstructive Pulmonary Disease-IV: Assessement and Diagnostic Studies
2.7K
Assessing and diagnosing Chronic Obstructive Pulmonary Disease (COPD) involves a detailed approach that includes a comprehensive review of medical history, physical examination, and a variety of diagnostic tests. This thorough evaluation is essential to ensure an accurate diagnosis and guide effective management strategies.
Medical History
Medical History
2.7K
01:25Statistical Methods for Analyzing Epidemiological Data
635
Epidemiological data primarily involves information on specific populations' occurrence, distribution, and determinants of health and diseases. This data is crucial for understanding disease patterns and impacts, aiding public health decision-making and disease prevention strategies. The analysis of epidemiological data employs various statistical methods to interpret health-related data effectively. Here are some commonly used methods:
635
01:20COPD: Pathogenesis and Clinical Features
746
Chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) is a group of lung conditions that progressively worsen over time, including chronic bronchitis and emphysema. This cluster of diseases collectively leads to a gradual and irreversible decline in lung function over time.
The primary cause for the onset of COPD is cigarette smoking and exposure to air pollution. These hazardous factors initiate a chain reaction within the lungs, resulting in chronic inflammation, damage to the airways, and a...
The primary cause for the onset of COPD is cigarette smoking and exposure to air pollution. These hazardous factors initiate a chain reaction within the lungs, resulting in chronic inflammation, damage to the airways, and a...
746
01:05Single Nucleotide Polymorphisms-SNPs
17.0K
A single nucleotide polymorphism or SNP is a single nucleotide variation at a specific genomic position in a large population. It is the most prevalent type of sequence variation found in the human genome. Point mutations that occur in more than 1% of the population qualify as SNPs. These are present once every 1000 nucleotides on an average in the human genome. Replacement of a purine with another purine (A/G) or a pyrimidine with another pyrimidine (C/T) is known as a transition. In contrast,...
17.0K
01:29Bias in Epidemiological Studies
844
Biases can arise at various stages of research, from study design and data collection to analysis and interpretation. Recognizing and addressing these biases is essential to ensure the validity and reliability of epidemiological findings.Broadly speaking, biases in epidemiology fall into three main categories: selection bias, information bias, and confounding. A more detailed description of possible biases is:
844