Exploring the likely relationship between soil carbon change and environmental controls using nonrevisited temporal...

The prediction of soil organic carbon (SOC) changes in response to environmental change is often limited by a scarcity of revisited temporal data, which constrains scientific understanding and realistic predictions of soil carbon change. The present study improved the potential of nonrevisited temporal data in the prediction of SOC stocks (SOCS) variations. We proposed a method to develop predictions of SOCS change using two independent temporal data sets (pertaining to the 1980s and 2010s) in China based on the digital soil mapping technique. Changes in SOCS over time at the site level were analyzed via the interpolation of missing SOCS values in each data set. Quantitative SOCS change predictions were generated by modeling the relationship between SOCS change and variables that represent changes in climate, vegetation indices, and land cover. The scale-dependent response of SOCS change to these environmental dynamics was assessed. On average, a slight increase was observed from 3.70 kg m^-2 in the 1980s to 4.53 kg m^-2 in the 2010s. The proposed approach attained moderate accuracy with an R² value of 0.32 and a root mean squared error (RMSE) of 1.73 kg m^-2. We found that changes in climate factors were dominant controls of SOCS change over time at the country scale. At the regional scale, the controlling factors of SOCS change were distinct and variable. Our case study may be of value in the application of independent temporal data sets to analyze soil carbon change on multiple scales. The method may be used to resolve questions of soil carbon change projections and provide an alternative solution to predict likely changes in soil carbon in response to future environmental change when no temporal data are available.