COVID-19 mortality rate in children is U-shaped
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Updated: Oct 23, 2025

Author Spotlight: Advancements in Multiplex Detection of Respiratory Viruses
Published on: November 10, 2023
Nina Khera1,2, Didac Santesmasses3, Csaba Kerepesi3
1Buckingham Browne and Nichols School, Cambridge, MA 02138, USA.
Insights
Children have lower COVID-19 mortality than adults, with risk lowest between ages 3-10. COVID-19 deaths are significantly less common than other causes like pneumonia in children, especially the youngest.
Area of Science:
- Pediatrics
- Epidemiology
- Infectious Diseases
Background:
- Children generally exhibit better protection against COVID-19 compared to adults.
- Limited understanding exists regarding pediatric COVID-19 susceptibility patterns and comparative disease risk.
Purpose of the Study:
- To define COVID-19 mortality patterns in children.
- To compare pediatric COVID-19 risk relative to other diseases and age-specific all-cause mortality.
Main Methods:
- Analysis of COVID-19 mortality rates across different pediatric age groups.
- Comparison of COVID-19 mortality with all-cause mortality and mortality from other infectious diseases (e.g., pneumonia, influenza).
Main Results:
- COVID-19 mortality exhibits a U-shaped curve in childhood, decreasing to a minimum at ages 3-10 years, then increasing with age.
- Childhood COVID-19 mortality rates are substantially lower than those for other diseases, with the greatest relative protection observed in the youngest children.
- The proportion of COVID-19 deaths among all-cause deaths increases with age throughout childhood and adulthood.
Conclusions:
- Children, particularly the youngest, experience a lower mortality risk from COVID-19 compared to other diseases.
- The findings highlight the need to consider age-specific risks and relative disease burdens when assessing COVID-19's impact on pediatric populations.
Abstract:
Children are known to be better protected from COVID-19 than adults, but their susceptibility patterns and the risk relative to other diseases are insufficiently defined. Here, we found that the COVID-19 mortality rate is U-shaped in childhood: it initially decreases, reaching the minimum at the ages 3-10 years, and then increases throughout life. All-cause mortality and mortality from other diseases, such as pneumonia and influenza, show a similar pattern; however, childhood mortality rates from COVID-19 are considerably lower than from other diseases, with the best relative protection achieved at the youngest ages. Consistent with this, the fraction of COVID-19 deaths among all deaths increases as a function of age throughout childhood and the entire life. We discuss implications of the elevated postnatal COVID-19 risk and lower childhood COVID-19 mortality compared to other diseases.
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