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Trajectory Data Analyses for Pedestrian Space-time Activity Study
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Social distancing in pedestrian dynamics and its effect on disease spreading.

Sina Sajjadi1,2,3, Alireza Hashemi1, Fakhteh Ghanbarnejad1,4

  • 1Department of Physics, Sharif University of Technology, P.O. Box 11165-9161, Tehran, Iran.

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Social distancing significantly reduces epidemic spread by altering human mobility and disease transmission dynamics. Even minority adherence drastically changes population exposure risk, offering policy guidelines for risk reduction.

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Area of Science:

  • Epidemiology
  • Mathematical Modeling
  • Computational Social Science

Background:

  • Nonpharmaceutical interventions are crucial for epidemic control.
  • Understanding human mobility's role in disease spread is essential.

Purpose of the Study:

  • To model the impact of social distancing on epidemic spread using a combined mobility and disease transmission model.
  • To quantify the effect of social distancing adherence on population exposure risk.

Main Methods:

  • Developed an agent-based model for pedestrian dynamics incorporating a novel social distancing force.
  • Integrated susceptible-exposed-infective (SEI) compartmental dynamics with indirect transmission via footprints.
  • Simulated scenarios with varying levels of social distancing adherence.

Main Results:

  • Increased social distancing intensity significantly reduces exposure risk.
  • Adherence by a minority of infectious agents drastically alters population exposure risk.
  • Effectiveness of social distancing decreases for contagions with significant indirect transmission.

Conclusions:

  • Social distancing is an effective nonpharmaceutical measure for epidemic control.
  • Population heterogeneity in adherence impacts overall protocol effectiveness.
  • Findings provide quantitative insights for public health policy and risk reduction strategies.