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Updated: Oct 23, 2025

Swabbing the Urban Environment - A Pipeline for Sampling and Detection of SARS-CoV-2 From Environmental Reservoirs
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Modeling local coronavirus outbreaks.

Joseph T Chang1, Edward H Kaplan2

  • 1Department of Statistics and Data Science, Yale University, 24 Hillhouse Avenue, New Haven, CT 06511, USA.

European Journal of Operational Research
|August 20, 2021
PubMed
Summary
This summary is machine-generated.

This study introduces a renewal epidemic model for tracking local coronavirus (COVID-19) outbreaks. The model simplifies outbreak analysis, revealing herd immunity and aiding in infection control strategies.

Keywords:
COVID-19Epidemic indicatorsOR in health servicesRenewal modelRepeat testing

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Area of Science:

  • Epidemiology
  • Mathematical Modeling
  • Public Health

Background:

  • Local coronavirus (COVID-19) outbreaks exhibit complex transmission dynamics.
  • Accurate modeling is crucial for effective control strategies and understanding epidemic progression.

Purpose of the Study:

  • To present methods for modeling and controlling local coronavirus outbreaks.
  • To link early transmission dynamics to a renewal epidemic model.
  • To derive practical formulas for outbreak analysis and intervention assessment.

Main Methods:

  • Review of early transmission dynamics and exponential growth.
  • Application of a renewal epidemic model linking current incidence to past values.
  • Development of formulas for fraction infected, herd immunity, and epidemic indicator alignment.

Main Results:

  • Simple formulas for the fraction of the population infected in unmitigated outbreaks.
  • Identification of herd immunity as an optimization problem solution.
  • Formulas for aligning observable data (cases, hospitalizations, deaths) with infection incidence.
  • A first-order approach for estimating the effective reproduction number ().
  • Direct assessments of isolation effectiveness, including asymptomatic screening programs.

Conclusions:

  • The renewal epidemic model provides a simplified framework for analyzing and controlling local coronavirus outbreaks.
  • The model facilitates understanding of herd immunity and the impact of interventions like isolation and screening.
  • This approach enhances the ability to link observable data to underlying infection dynamics for informed public health decisions.