Impact of Medicaid expansion on smoking prevalence and quit attempts among those newly eligible, 2011-2019

Low-income populations have higher rates of smoking and are disproportionately affected by smoking-related illnesses. This study assessed the long-term impact of increased coverage for tobacco cessation through Medicaid expansion on past-year quit attempts and prevalence of cigarette smoking.

Using data from CDC's annual Behavioral Risk Factor Surveillance System 2011-2019, we conducted difference-in-difference regression analyses to compare changes in smoking prevalence and past-year quit attempts in expansion states versus non-expansion states. Our sample included non-pregnant adults (18-64 years old) without dependent children with incomes at or below 100% of the Federal Poverty Level (FPL).

Regression analyses indicate that Medicaid expansion was associated with reduced smoking prevalence in the first two years post-expansion (β=-0.019, p=0.04), but that this effect was not maintained at longer follow-up periods (β=-0.006, p=0.49). Results of regression analyses also suggest that Medicaid expansion does not significantly impact quit attempts in the short-term (β=-0.013, p=0.52) or at longer term follow-up (β=-0.026, p=0.08).

Expanded coverage for tobacco cessation services through Medicaid alone may not be enough to increase quit-attempts or sustain a reduction in overall prevalence of smoking in newly eligible populations over time. Medicaid programs should consider additional strategies, such as public education campaigns and removal of barriers, to support cessation among enrollees.