Environmental determinants of Anaplasma phagocytophilum infection in cattle using a kernel density function

The study of vector-borne zoonotic diseases often relies on partial data, because of the constraints associated with observing various elements of the transmission cycle: the pathogen, the vector, the host - wild or domestic. Each angle comes with its own practical challenges, leading to data reflecting poorly either on spatial or temporal dynamics, or both. In this study, we investigated the effect of landscape on the presence of bovine ehrlichiosis infection in Walloon cattle. This disease is transmitted to cattle through the bite of a tick infected by the bacterium Anaplasma phagocytophilum. The first case of bovine ehrlichiosis in the southern region of Belgium (Wallonia) was detected in 2005 and the high seroprevalence found in herds suggests that the disease is endemic. The presence of antibodies of A. phagocytophilum in one cow selected in each of 1445 herds in 2010 and 2011 was detected using indirect immunofluorescence. Samples were geolocated at the farm. However, the precise location of infection remains uncertain. To account for the data sparsity, we elaborated a spatial index for the intensity of the presence of seropositive animals, based on a non-parametric kernel density estimation. We examined this index with the landscape surrounding the pastures, using multiple regressions. Landscape factors were selected using a conceptual framework based on the ecological resources needed for the transmission cycle of A. phagocytophilum. Results suggest that our spatial index adequately reflected infection presence in cattle in Wallonia, which was highest in central regions, corresponding to more forested and fragmented landscapes. We noticed that the presence of large hosts, wild or domestic, as well as the composition and configuration of the landscape of the pasture, influenced the capacity of the pasture to support the presence of bovine ehrlichiosis in Walloon herds. This is consistent with the ecology of A. phagocytophilum and current knowledge about risk factors of tick-borne diseases in cattle at the regional scale. The nature of the kernel density index, based on uncertainties over the location of cases positive to A. phagocytophilum, reflected the infectiousness profile at the landscape and not at the pasture level. Results also highlighted that the effects of some environmental variables remain, even when considering the different agro-geographic regions of Wallonia, which present contrasted landscapes and different levels of intensity of A. phagocytophilum infection. The kernel density index is a useful tool to help veterinary practitioner to quickly target areas where A. phagocytophilum infection is likely.