Modeling the survival of Salmonella on whole cucumbers as a function of temperature and relative humidity

Recent multistate outbreaks of salmonellosis associated with fresh cucumbers underscore the importance of understanding Salmonella behavior on cucumbers under different conditions. This study developed mathematical models to predict the survival of four-strain cocktail of Salmonella on whole cucumbers at different temperature and relative humidity (RH) conditions. The strains were Salmonella Newport H1275 and Stanley H0558 (sprout outbreaks), Montevideo G4639 (tomato outbreak), and Saintpaul 02-517-1 (cantaloupe outbreak). Inoculated cucumbers were placed in desiccators containing saturated salt solution to create controlled RH environments (~15, 50, 100% RH) at 7, 14, and 21 °C, and enumerated at time intervals ranging from 0 to 240 h. Predictive models were developed using Baranyi and Roberts equation as a primary model and estimated kinetic parameters were fitted into a polynomial equation for secondary models. Reduced model polynomial equations which describe the maximum death rate and the log reduction of Salmonella on whole cucumber as a function of temperature and RH had high R² values (>0.95). Validation results verified the performance and reliability of the predictive models. The models in this study will be useful for future microbial risk assessments and predictions of Salmonella behavior in the cucumbers to manage the risk of Salmonella on whole cucumbers.