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This study introduces a COVID-19 propagation model to analyze global epidemic trends. Findings show that public awareness and protective measures significantly reduce infection risk and outbreak scale.

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Area of Science:

  • Epidemiology
  • Mathematical Modeling
  • Public Health

Background:

  • Understanding COVID-19 propagation is crucial for global epidemic control.
  • Economic factors and interventions significantly influence disease spread.
  • Public awareness plays a key role in mitigating outbreaks.

Purpose of the Study:

  • To propose a COVID-19 propagation model for simulating global epidemic trends.
  • To analyze economic and intervention factors impacting COVID-19 spread.
  • To assess the influence of public awareness on epidemic control.

Main Methods:

  • Development of a COVID-19 propagation model.
  • Redefinition of the 'touch number' for High-risk Population Dynamic Networks.
  • Simulation of COVID-19 spread and comparison with World Health Organization data.

Main Results:

  • The proposed model accurately simulates COVID-19 propagation, validated by real-world data.
  • Economic factors and interventions were analyzed for their impact on different countries.
  • Public awareness and protective measures were identified as critical for reducing infection risk.

Conclusions:

  • The developed model provides a reliable tool for predicting COVID-19 epidemic trends.
  • Early adoption of protective measures like mask-wearing and reduced travel is vital.
  • Enhancing public awareness is essential for effective epidemic control and reducing outbreak scale.