Forecasting Hepatocellular Carcinoma Mortality using a Weighted Regression Model to Estimate Cohort Effects in Taiwan

To eliminate the influence of age and period in age cycle contingency table data, a multistage method was adopted to evaluate the cohort effect. The most general primary malignant tumor of the liver is hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC). HCC is associated with liver cirrhosis with alcohol and viral etiologies. In epidemiology, long-term trends in HCC mortality were delineated (or forecasted) by using an age-period-cohort (APC) model. The HCC deaths were determined for each cohort with its weighted influence. The confidence interval (CI) of the weighted mean is fairly narrow (compared to the equally weighted estimates). Due to the fairly narrow CI with less uncertainty, the weighted mean estimation was used as a means for forecasting. With the multistage method, it is recommended to use weighted mean estimation based on a regression model to evaluate the cohort effect in the age-period contingency table data.