Effect of mutation and vaccination on spread, severity, and mortality of COVID-19 disease

Hossam M Zawbaa1,2, Hasnaa Osama3, Ahmed El-Gendy4

  • 1Faculty of Computers and Artificial Intelligence, Beni-Suef University, Beni-Suef, Egypt.

Insights

The second wave of COVID-19 saw higher case numbers but lower severity than the first. Later waves had fewer cases but comparable or higher deaths, possibly due to treatments and vaccines.

Area of Science:

  • Epidemiology
  • Infectious Disease Dynamics
  • Public Health

Background:

  • Coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) has exhibited distinct waves with varying spread rates and severity within countries.
  • Understanding these variations is crucial for effective public health strategies.

Purpose of the Study:

  • To compare the spread and severity of different COVID-19 waves using confirmed cases and death data.
  • To analyze trends across multiple countries with high testing volumes.

Main Methods:

  • Utilized real-world datasets from Johns Hopkins University for 12 countries with the highest COVID-19 testing rates.
  • Compared confirmed cases and deaths between sequential waves (Wave 1 vs. Wave 2, Wave 2 vs. Waves 3 & 4) over equivalent periods.
  • Calculated death rates as a percentage of confirmed cases for each wave.

Main Results:

  • Wave 2 showed significantly higher confirmed cases than Wave 1 globally, but with a lower death rate.
  • In Waves 3 and 4, confirmed cases decreased compared to Wave 2, yet death cases were similar or higher in most countries.
  • Some countries, like UAE and Spain, experienced lower death counts in Wave 2 compared to Wave 1, despite higher case numbers.

Conclusions:

  • Wave 2 of COVID-19 was characterized by increased spread but reduced severity compared to Wave 1.
  • While treatments and vaccination may explain lower case counts in later waves, their impact on mortality remains variable and warrants further investigation.
  • The findings highlight the complex and evolving nature of COVID-19 pandemic dynamics across different waves and geographical regions.

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