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Effect of mutation and vaccination on spread, severity, and mortality of COVID-19 disease
Hossam M Zawbaa1,2, Hasnaa Osama3, Ahmed El-Gendy4
1Faculty of Computers and Artificial Intelligence, Beni-Suef University, Beni-Suef, Egypt.
Insights
The second wave of COVID-19 saw higher case numbers but lower severity than the first. Later waves had fewer cases but comparable or higher deaths, possibly due to treatments and vaccines.
Area of Science:
- Epidemiology
- Infectious Disease Dynamics
- Public Health
Background:
- Coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) has exhibited distinct waves with varying spread rates and severity within countries.
- Understanding these variations is crucial for effective public health strategies.
Purpose of the Study:
- To compare the spread and severity of different COVID-19 waves using confirmed cases and death data.
- To analyze trends across multiple countries with high testing volumes.
Main Methods:
- Utilized real-world datasets from Johns Hopkins University for 12 countries with the highest COVID-19 testing rates.
- Compared confirmed cases and deaths between sequential waves (Wave 1 vs. Wave 2, Wave 2 vs. Waves 3 & 4) over equivalent periods.
- Calculated death rates as a percentage of confirmed cases for each wave.
Main Results:
- Wave 2 showed significantly higher confirmed cases than Wave 1 globally, but with a lower death rate.
- In Waves 3 and 4, confirmed cases decreased compared to Wave 2, yet death cases were similar or higher in most countries.
- Some countries, like UAE and Spain, experienced lower death counts in Wave 2 compared to Wave 1, despite higher case numbers.
Conclusions:
- Wave 2 of COVID-19 was characterized by increased spread but reduced severity compared to Wave 1.
- While treatments and vaccination may explain lower case counts in later waves, their impact on mortality remains variable and warrants further investigation.
- The findings highlight the complex and evolving nature of COVID-19 pandemic dynamics across different waves and geographical regions.
Abstract:
Coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) has had different waves within the same country. The spread rate and severity showed different properties within the COVID-19 different waves. The present work aims to compare the spread and the severity of the different waves using the available data of confirmed COVID-19 cases and death cases. Real-data sets collected from the Johns Hopkins University Center for Systems Science were used to perform a comparative study between COVID-19 different waves in 12 countries with the highest total performed tests for severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 detection in the world (Italy, Brazil, Japan, Germany, Spain, India, USA, UAE, Poland, Colombia, Turkey, and Switzerland). The total number of confirmed cases and death cases in different waves of COVID-19 were compared to that of the previous one for equivalent periods. The total number of death cases in each wave was presented as a percentage of the total number of confirmed cases for the same periods. In all the selected 12 countries, Wave 2 had a much higher number of confirmed cases than that in Wave 1. However, the death cases increase was not comparable with that of the confirmed cases to the extent that some countries had lower death cases than in Wave 1, UAE, and Spain. The death cases as a percentage of the total number of confirmed cases in Wave 1 were much higher than that in Wave 2. Some countries have had Waves 3 and 4. Waves 3 and 4 have had lower confirmed cases than Wave 2, however, the death cases were variable in different countries. The death cases in Waves 3 and 4 were similar to or higher than Wave 2 in most countries. Wave 2 of COVID-19 had a much higher spread rate but much lower severity resulting in a lower death rate in Wave 2 compared with that of the first wave. Waves 3 and 4 have had lower confirmed cases than Wave 2; that could be due to the presence of appropriate treatment and vaccination. However, that was not reflected in the death cases, which were similar to or higher than Wave 2 in most countries. Further studies are needed to explain these findings.
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