The junior doctor changeover effect: does it exist in general surgery?

Junior doctor changeover has been perceived as a period of increased risk to patients. However, there is a paucity of contemporary evidence of this 'changeover effect'. The aim of this study was to evaluate the presence of an adverse patient effect during periods of junior doctor changeover.

Data were requested on all patients aged 18 years or older admitted acutely under General Surgery in the North of England between 2005 and 2016. This included patient characteristics, diagnoses, comorbidities, procedure codes, mortality and length of stay. Patients were included in the study if they were admitted during the 'changeover week'; defined as the first day of the changeover followed by the six subsequent days. For junior trainees (FY1-CT2), this is the first Wednesday of August, December and April each year. For higher surgical trainees (ST3-ST8), it is the first Wednesday in October. Another week, four weeks prior, was chosen as a historical comparator.

In total, 61,714 patients were included in this study. Patient characteristics did not vary between the cohorts. There was no difference in 30-day mortality between changeover and non-changeover groups (2.5% vs 2.6%, p = 0.280) or length of stay (5.3 vs 5.2, p = 0.613). Changeover week was not a predictor of increased mortality (OR 1.06, p = 0.302) following multivariable adjustment. Further analysis of the first junior and higher specialty trainee periods, August and October, respectively, showed no significant difference for measured outcomes.

This retrospective cohort study provides contemporary evidence that the 'changeover effect' does not exist in acute general surgical admissions in the UK.