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Measuring the intensity of conflicts in conservation.

Jeremy J Cusack1,2, Tom Bradfer-Lawrence1,3, Zachary Baynham-Herd4

  • 1Biological and Environmental Sciences University of Stirling Stirling UK.

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Summary

We developed a new framework to measure conservation conflict intensity, adapting a model from armed conflict studies. This method quantifies conflict levels, aiding in understanding and managing human-wildlife interactions.

Keywords:
armed conflictcoexistencecurvedeescalationdiscourseescalationspatiotemporalstakeholder groupsstasistrend

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Area of Science:

  • Conservation Science
  • Conflict Studies
  • Ecology

Background:

  • Conservation conflicts threaten ecosystems and human well-being.
  • Existing methods for quantifying conflict intensity and dynamics are limited.

Purpose of the Study:

  • To develop and validate a novel framework for categorizing and modeling conservation conflict intensity.
  • To adapt the 'curve of conflict' model for analyzing conservation-related disputes.

Main Methods:

  • Developed a six-level intensity categorization based on stakeholder discourse and actions.
  • Applied the 'curve of conflict' model to quantify conflict escalation and deescalation.
  • Utilized case studies to demonstrate the framework's application in trend quantification and covariate analysis.

Main Results:

  • The framework successfully quantifies conflict trends and transition probabilities between stages.
  • Conflict intensity was modeled as a function of relevant covariates.
  • Demonstrated the framework's utility across diverse socioecological scenarios.

Conclusions:

  • The proposed framework provides an evidence-based approach to understanding conservation conflict drivers.
  • This quantitative method enhances the management of human-wildlife and human-nature conflicts.
  • Offers a valuable tool for predicting and mitigating conservation challenges.