Measuring the intensity of conflicts in conservation

Area of Science:

• Conservation Science
• Conflict Studies
• Ecology

Background:

• Conservation conflicts threaten ecosystems and human well-being.
• Existing methods for quantifying conflict intensity and dynamics are limited.

Purpose of the Study:

• To develop and validate a novel framework for categorizing and modeling conservation conflict intensity.
• To adapt the 'curve of conflict' model for analyzing conservation-related disputes.

Main Methods:

• Developed a six-level intensity categorization based on stakeholder discourse and actions.
• Applied the 'curve of conflict' model to quantify conflict escalation and deescalation.
• Utilized case studies to demonstrate the framework's application in trend quantification and covariate analysis.

Main Results:

• The framework successfully quantifies conflict trends and transition probabilities between stages.
• Conflict intensity was modeled as a function of relevant covariates.
• Demonstrated the framework's utility across diverse socioecological scenarios.

Conclusions:

• The proposed framework provides an evidence-based approach to understanding conservation conflict drivers.
• This quantitative method enhances the management of human-wildlife and human-nature conflicts.
• Offers a valuable tool for predicting and mitigating conservation challenges.