The predictive value of PET/CT for distant recurrences in locally advanced rectal cancer treated with neoadjuvant...

It is well recognized that pathological complete response (pCR) for locally advanced rectal cancer after neoadjuvant chemoradiotherapy (CRT) confers a positive survival advantage. Despite this, a small proportion of patients can develop distant recurrence, and these are the patients that will likely benefit from adjuvant therapy. This study aims to investigate the role of PET/CT as a functional imaging to stratify patients according to their risk of distant recurrence.

This is a retrospective analysis of a prospectively maintained database in a single quaternary teaching hospital from 2010 to 2019. All consecutive cases of locally advanced rectal cancer with restaging PET/CT were included. The primary outcome measure was 5-year OS and distant recurrence-free survival.

A pCR and complete metabolic response (CMR) were identified in 47 (18%) patients and 73 (27.4%) patients respectively. Of these, 26 patients had both pCR and CMR and these patients remained free of local and distant recurrence at their last censored date. Patients with both pCR and CMR achieved the highest 5-year overall survival of 96.2%, followed by those with pCR and incomplete CMR (iCMR) of 85.7%, non-pCR and CMR of 85.1% and non-pCR and iCMR of 83.1%. Independent predictors for 5-year distant recurrence-free survival were pathological and PET metabolic response, nodal staging and lymphovascular invasion (LVI).

In conclusion, a PET/CT has the potential to better stratify patients of their risk of distant metastasis. However, a larger validation cohort is required before these findings can be translated to clinical utility.