Excess Mortality Associated With COVID-19 by Demographic Group: Evidence From Florida and Ohio

COVID-19 mortality varies across demographic groups at the national level, but little is known about potential differences in COVID-19 mortality across states. The objective of this study was to estimate the number of all-cause excess deaths associated with COVID-19 in Florida and Ohio overall and by sex, age, and race.

We calculated the number of weekly and cumulative excess deaths among adults aged ≥20 from March 15 through December 5, 2020, in Florida and Ohio as the observed number of deaths less the expected number of deaths, adjusted for population, secular trends, and seasonality. We based our estimates on death certificate data from the previous 10 years.

The results were based on ratios of observed-to-expected deaths. The ratios were 1.17 (95% prediction interval, 1.14-1.21) in Florida and 1.15 (95% prediction interval, 1.11-1.19) in Ohio. Although the largest number of excess deaths occurred in the oldest age groups, in both states the ratios of observed-to-expected deaths were highest among adults aged 20-49 (1.21; 95% prediction interval, 1.11-1.32). The ratio of observed-to-expected deaths for the Black population was especially elevated in Florida.

Although excess deaths were largely concentrated among older cohorts, the high ratios of observed-to-expected deaths among younger age groups indicate widespread effects of COVID-19. The high levels of observed-to-expected deaths among Black adults may reflect in part disparities in infection rates, preexisting conditions, and access to care. The finding of high excess deaths among Black adults deserves further attention.