Implementing an Individual-Centric Discharge Process across Singapore Public Hospitals

Singapore is one of the first known countries to implement an individual-centric discharge process across all public hospitals to manage frequent admissions-a perennial challenge for public healthcare, especially in an aging population. Specifically, the process provides daily lists of high-risk patients to all public hospitals for customized discharge procedures within 24 h of admission. We analyzed all public hospital admissions (N = 150,322) in a year. Among four models, the gradient boosting machine performed the best (AUC = 0.79) with a positive predictive value set at 70%. Interestingly, the cumulative length of stay (LOS) in the past 12 months was a stronger predictor than the number of previous admissions, as it is a better proxy for acute care utilization. Another important predictor was the "number of days from previous non-elective admission", which is different from previous studies that included both elective and non-elective admissions. Of note, the model did not include LOS of the index admission-a key predictor in other models-since our predictive model identified frequent admitters for pre-discharge interventions during the index (current) admission. The scientific ingredients that built the model did not guarantee its successful implementation-an "art" that requires the alignment of processes, culture, human capital, and senior management sponsorship. Change management is paramount, otherwise data-driven health policies, no matter how well-intended, may not be accepted or implemented. Overall, our study demonstrated the viability of using artificial intelligence (AI) to build a near real-time nationwide prediction tool for individual-centric discharge, and the critical factors for successful implementation.