[Risk factors and risk model of lymph node metastasis in early gastric cancer]

To investigate the risk factors of lymph node metastasis in early gastric cancer (EGC) and to develop a risk model for the presence of lymph node metastasis. A total of 172 EGC patients, with a median age of 62(52, 68) years, who underwent gastric cancer resection in the First Affiliated Hospital of Nanjing Medical University from January 2017 to June 2019 were selected. Clinical data of the patients were collected through the case system. Logistic regression analysis was used to determine the variables significantly related to lymph node metastasis. ROC curve and calibration curve were used to evaluate the risk model. The results showed that the lymph node metastasis rate of 172 EGC patients was 19.19% (33/172). Tumor size, depth of invasion, degree of differentiation and vascular tumor thrombus were associated with lymph node metastasis (P<0.05), but age ≥ 60 years (OR=5.556, 95%CI: 1.757-17.569, P=0.004), invasion depth (OR=4.218,95%CI:1.418-12.548, P=0.010) and vascular cancer embolus (OR=13.878,95%CI:4.081-47.196,P<0.001) were independent risk factors for lymph node metastasis of EGC. The consistency index of the risk model based on the above risk factors was 0.8835 (95%CI: 0.818 8-0.948 2). The calibration curve shows that the risk assessment model is in good agreement with the actual results, indicating that the model has high accuracy and discrimination.The most common site of metastasis was group 3, followed by group 4. Therefore, patients over 60 years old with submucosal invasion and vascular tumor thrombus may have a higher risk of lymph node metastasis.