Control of snakebite envenoming: A mathematical modeling study.

Area of Science:

• Epidemiology
• Mathematical Modeling
• Public Health

Background:

• Snakebite envenoming poses a significant global health burden, causing numerous deaths and disabilities.
• Effective interventional strategies are crucial for mitigating the impact of snakebite envenoming in communities.

Purpose of the Study:

• To develop and utilize a mathematical model to evaluate the effectiveness of different snakebite envenoming control strategies.
• To identify the most cost-effective interventions for reducing snakebite-related mortality and morbidity.

Main Methods:

• A mathematical model was designed and calibrated using real-world data.
• Numerical simulations were conducted to assess the impact of public health awareness and antivenom treatment.
• Optimal control theory and cost-effectiveness analysis (incremental cost-effectiveness ratio) were employed.

Main Results:

• Public health awareness campaigns can decrease envenoming incidents and prevent deaths and disabilities.
• Early antivenom treatment for at least 50% of patients can avert a substantial number of deaths.
• Combining public health awareness with antivenom treatment proved most effective in averting deaths and disability-adjusted life years.

Conclusions:

• The integrated approach of public health awareness and prompt antivenom treatment is the most cost-effective strategy for managing snakebite envenoming.
• An estimated US$72,548 is required to avert 117 deaths or 2,739 disability-adjusted life years over 21 months.
• This combined strategy is strongly recommended for implementation in affected areas to reduce the burden of snakebite envenoming.