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Watershed Planning within a Quantitative Scenario Analysis Framework
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A stochastic modeling approach for analyzing water resources systems.

Yutong Li1, Yanpeng Cai2, Qiang Fu3

  • 1State Key Laboratory of Water Environment Simulation, Beijing Normal University, Beijing 100875, China.

Journal of Contaminant Hydrology
|August 27, 2021
PubMed
Summary

This study introduces a copula-based interval multi-stage fuzzy stochastic programming (CIMFSP) model to manage complex water resource allocation. The approach helps decision-makers balance economic benefits and risks in water distribution systems.

Keywords:
Coupled riskFuzzy setsIrrigationMulti-stage stochastic analysisWater resource system

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Area of Science:

  • Environmental Science
  • Water Resource Management
  • Operations Research

Background:

  • Water resource systems face significant uncertainties, complicating water distribution, especially in irrigated watersheds with multiple sources and users.
  • Joint risks and multi-uncertainties in water availability and demand pose challenges for effective water resource allocation.

Purpose of the Study:

  • To develop and apply a novel copula-based interval multi-stage fuzzy stochastic programming (CIMFSP) model for water resource management.
  • To address the interaction between water availability from multiple sources and multi-uncertainties in water demand for optimal allocation.

Main Methods:

  • Introduced copula functions to model the interaction of water availability between two sources (A & B).
  • Developed an interval parameter multi-stage fuzzy stochastic programming (IMFSP) model to handle uncertainties (interval numbers, probability distributions, fuzzy sets) in water demand.
  • Utilized multi-stage discrete trees to represent system dynamics and generated solutions across various scenarios (joint risk levels and α-cut levels).

Main Results:

  • The CIMFSP model generated a series of alternative solutions under different risk scenarios.
  • The results provide insights into the trade-offs between system economic benefits and financial penalties at various risk levels.
  • The approach demonstrated value in improving the feasibility of optimal water resource management decisions.

Conclusions:

  • The developed CIMFSP model effectively handles complex uncertainties and interactions in water resource allocation.
  • The approach aids decision-makers in understanding risk-benefit trade-offs for improved water management in irrigated watersheds.
  • This methodology enhances the practicality and optimality of water resource planning in dynamic environments.