Temporal Dynamics of Influenza A(H5N1) Subtype before and after the Emergence of H5N8

Highly pathogenic avian influenza (HPAI) viruses continue to circulate worldwide, causing numerous outbreaks among bird species and severe public health concerns. H5N1 and H5N8 are the two most fundamental HPAI subtypes detected in birds in the last two decades. The two viruses may compete with each other while sharing the same host population and, thus, suppress the spread of one of the viruses. In this study, we performed a statistical analysis to investigate the temporal correlation of the HPAI H5N1 and HPAI H5N8 subtypes using globally reported data in 2015-2020. This was joined with an in-depth analysis using data generated via our national surveillance program in Egypt. A total of 6412 outbreaks were reported worldwide during this period, with 39% (2529) as H5N1 and 61% (3883) as H5N8. In Egypt, 65% of positive cases were found in backyards, while only 12% were found in farms and 23% in live bird markets. Overall, our findings depict a trade-off between the number of positive H5N1 and H5N8 samples around early 2017, which is suggestive of the potential replacement between the two subtypes. Further research is still required to elucidate the underpinning mechanisms of this competitive dynamic. This, in turn, will implicate the design of effective strategies for disease control.