Histogram Analysis Based on Apparent Diffusion Coefficient Maps of Bone Marrow in Multiple Myeloma: An Independent Predictor for High-risk Patients Classified by the Revised International Staging System

The revised International Staging System (R-ISS) is the current risk stratifier for patients with newly diagnosed multiple myeloma (NDMM). We used histogram analysis based on apparent diffusion coefficient (ADC) maps of bone marrow to predict high-risk NDMM patients staged as R-ISS stage III.

Sixty-one NDMM patients were recruited prospectively and underwent whole-body diffusion-weighted MRI. Mean ADC and four ADC-based histogram parameters of representative background bone marrow were quantified with TexRAD software, including ADC entropy, ADC standard deviation (SD), ADC skewness and ADC kurtosis. Diagnostic performance to discriminate R-ISS III from I/II disease was evaluated by receiver-operating characteristics curve (ROC). Univariate and multivariate analysis using stepwise logistic regression model was performed to identify predictors for R-ISS III.

ADC entropy of background marrow showed the highest areas under the ROC (0.784, sensitivity = 93.3%, specificity = 63.0%) for the detection of R-ISS stage III disease. Multivariate analysis showed that increased ADC entropy (>3.612) of background marrow can independently predict R-ISS stage III disease in the overall patients (Model 1 corrected for diffuse infiltration [DI] pattern: odds ratio [OR], 10.647; p = 0.008; Model 2 corrected for mean ADC: OR, 10.485; p = 0.010) and in the subgroup with DI pattern (OR, 7.043; p = 0.037).

ADC entropy of background marrow may serve as a sensitive imaging biomarker facilitating the detection of high-risk NDMM patients staged as R-ISS stage III. Increased ADC entropy of background marrow can independently predict R-ISS stage III in the overall patients and in the subgroup with DI pattern.