A novel hierarchical machine learning model for hospital-acquired venous thromboembolism risk assessment among...

Venous thromboembolism (VTE) is a common vascular disease and potentially fatal complication during hospitalization, and so the early identification of VTE risk is of significant importance. Compared with traditional scale assessments, machine learning methods provide new opportunities for precise early warning of VTE from clinical medical records. This research aimed to propose a two-stage hierarchical machine learning model for VTE risk prediction in patients from multiple departments. First, we built a machine learning prediction model that covered the entire hospital, based on all cohorts and common risk factors. Then, we took the prediction output of the first stage as an initial assessment score and then built specific models for each department. Over the duration of the study, a total of 9213 inpatients, including 1165 VTE-positive samples, were collected from four departments, which were split into developing and test datasets. The proposed model achieved an AUC of 0.879 in the department of oncology, which outperformed the first-stage model (0.730) and the department model (0.787). This was attributed to the fully usage of both the large sample size at the hospital level and variable abundance at the department level. Experimental results show that our model could effectively improve the prediction of hospital-acquired VTE risk before image diagnosis and provide decision support for further nursing and medical intervention.