Analysis of Health Trajectories Leading to Adverse Opioid-Related Events

Identifying patient risk factors leading to adverse opioid-related events (AOEs) may enable targeted risk-based interventions, uncover potential causal mechanisms, and enhance prognosis. In this article, we aim to discover patient diagnosis, procedure, and medication event trajectories associated with AOEs using large-scale data mining methods. The individual temporally preceding factors associated with the highest relative risk (RR) for AOEs were opioid withdrawal therapy agents, toxic encephalopathy, problems related to housing and economic circumstances, and unspecified viral hepatitis, with RR of 33.4, 26.1, 19.9, and 18.7, respectively. Patient cohorts with a socioeconomic or mental health code had a larger RR for over 75% of all identified trajectories compared to the average population. By analyzing health trajectories leading to AOEs, we discover novel, temporally-connected combinations of diagnoses and health service events that significantly increase risk of AOEs, including natural histories marked by socioeconomic and mental health diagnoses.