SAEgnal: A Predictive Assessment Framework for Optimizing Safety Profiles in Immuno-Oncology Combination Trials

Combination therapies are an emerging drug development strategy in cancer, particularly in the immunooncology (IO) space. Many combination studies do not meet their safety objectives due to serious adverse events (SAEs). Prediction of SAEs based on evidence from single and combination studies would be highly beneficial. To address the emerging challenge of optimizing the safety and efficacy of combination studies, we have assembled a novel oncology clinical trial data set with 329 trials, 685 arms (279 unique treatment arms), including 200 combinations, 79 mono arms, and 59 curated adverse event categories in the setting of non-small cell lung cancer (NSCLC). We integrated the database with an analytical framework: SAEgnal. Using SAEgnal, we have investigated the difference in the risk of 39 adverse event types between combination and monotherapy arms across a subset of 34 combination trials. We observed different risk profiles between combination and monotherapies; interestingly, while the risk of elevated AST/ALT is lower in combination arms (in 1/8 trials, p-value < 0.05), it is higher for bleeding (7/8 trials, p-value < 0.05). We envisage that the SAEgnal framework would enable rapid predictive analytics of SAEs in oncology and accelerate drug development in oncology.