Performance decline in a low-stakes test at age 15 and educational attainment at age 25: Cross-country longitudinal...

Educational attainment is associated with important life outcomes including labour market performance, health status, well-being, civic and political participation. An important question is whether it is possible to identify early those students who lack the achievement motivation that is needed to complete a higher education degree.

Longitudinal follow-ups of representative samples of participants in the 2000 and 2003 Programme for International Student Assessment (PISA) from Australia, Denmark and Switzerland (N = 3110; 1130; and 1962; age = 15 to 27; % females 51%, 51%, 49%; ethnicity/race unknown) were used to identify the association between a measure of effort on a cognitively demanding low-stake task at age 15 - performance decline during the test - and educational attainment at age 25-27.

A one SD difference in performance decline was associated with a 5-6 percentage point difference in the probability of obtaining tertiary-level qualifications (r = -0.15 in Australia; -0.11 in Denmark and -0.11 in Switzerland). We find no evidence of differences in this relationship across genders, socio-economic status and baseline levels of ability in the three countries. The association between performance decline and educational attainment is homogeneous across these groups. Self-reported measures of achievement motivation were not predictive of educational attainment in the three countries.

Our work contributes new longitudinal evidence to the body of research in education employing behavioural measures of motivation and engagement. It can be used to understand the potential long-term consequences of disparities in students' preparation to sustain effort over cognitively demanding tasks.