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Ontario's COVID-19 Modelling Consensus Table: mobilizing scientific expertise to support pandemic response
Michael P Hillmer1,2, Patrick Feng3, John R McLaughlin2
1Ministry of Health and Long-Term Care, Government of Ontario, Toronto, ON, Canada.
Summary
The COVID-19 pandemic necessitated rapid, credible epidemiological modeling. Ontario's Modelling Consensus Table (MCT) provided a flexible, collaborative approach to inform policy effectively.
Area of Science:
- Epidemiology
- Public Health Policy
- Mathematical Modeling
Background:
- The COVID-19 pandemic underscored the critical need for reliable epidemiological models to guide public health policy.
- Traditional research procurement methods proved inadequate for the rapid pace of pandemic evolution.
- Reliance on single expert centers for modeling was criticized for not encompassing diverse methodological challenges.
Purpose of the Study:
- To describe an innovative approach for mobilizing scientific expertise during a public health crisis.
- To introduce Ontario's COVID-19 Modelling Consensus Table (MCT) as a model for rapid, credible pandemic response.
- To highlight the benefits of a collaborative, multi-stakeholder modeling initiative.
Main Methods:
- Establishment of the COVID-19 Modelling Consensus Table (MCT) as a partnership between the province and academic modelers.
- Weekly meetings involving experts, health system leaders, and decision-makers to share data and modeling results.
- Utilizing Ministry of Health data to generate consensus judgments on COVID-19's impact and transmission dynamics.
Main Results:
- Facilitated swift data access for participants and established a framework for consensus-based estimates.
- Enabled credible modeling to inform health system planning and policy development.
- Increased transparency in public COVID-19 data reporting and accelerated research publication.
Conclusions:
- The MCT model offers a rapid and adaptable method for integrating external scientific expertise into government policy.
- This approach enhances nimbleness by allowing flexible addition of experts as needed.
- It demonstrates the crucial role of academic institutions in crisis response, balancing policy needs with academic freedom.
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