Prediction of Upper Limb use Three Months after Stroke: A Prospective Longitudinal Study

A major goal of upper limb (UL) rehabilitation after stroke is to facilitate the use of the paretic arm in daily life activities.

To examine if UL impairment two weeks after stroke can predict real-life UL use at three months. Furthermore, to identify additional factors which contribute to future UL use, and characteristics of patients who do not achieve normal UL use.

This study included patients with stroke ≥ 18 years. UL impairment was assessed by Fugl-Meyer upper extremity motor assessment (FM). Use ratio between affected and unaffected UL was assessed with accelerometers at three months after stroke. The association between FM score and UL use ratio was investigated with linear regression models and adjusted for secondary variables. Non-normal use was examined by a logistic regression.

Eighty-seven patients were included. FM score two weeks after stroke predicted 38% of the variance in UL use ratio three months after stroke. A multivariate regression model predicted 55%, and the significant predictors were FM, motor-evoked potential (MEP) status, and neglect. Non-normal use could be predicted with a high accuracy based on MEP and/or neglect. In a logistic regression sensitivity for prediction of non-normal use was 0.93 and specificity was 0.75.

Better baseline capacity of the paretic UL predicted increased use of the arm and hand in daily life. Non-normal UL use could be predicted reliably based on the absence of MEPs and/or presence of neglect.