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Prediction of Mortality Incidence in Patients with Chronic Kidney Disease Based on Influential Prognostic Factors

Anahita Saeedi1, Ahmadreza Baghestani2, Seyed-Saeed Hashemi-Nazari3

  • 1Student Research Committee, Department of Biostatistics, Shahid Beheshti University of Medical Sciences, Tehran, Iran.

Galen Medical Journal
|September 1, 2021
PubMed

Insights

Serum uric acid is linked to better survival in chronic kidney disease (CKD) patients, while high phosphorus and older age indicate a worse prognosis. This study identified key laboratory prognostic factors for CKD mortality.

Area of Science:

  • Nephrology
  • Clinical Medicine
  • Epidemiology

Background:

  • Chronic Kidney Disease (CKD) is characterized by a progressive decline in kidney function.
  • Identifying prognostic factors for mortality in CKD patients is crucial for clinical management.

Purpose of the Study:

  • To identify significant laboratory prognostic factors associated with death in patients with end-stage renal disease (ESRD).
  • To analyze the impact of serum markers and age on mortality and transplantation in CKD patients.

Main Methods:

  • A retrospective study of 109 ESRD patients treated between 2014-2018.
  • Utilized a three-parameter Gompertz model to analyze survival time, accounting for death due to CKD and transplantation as a competing risk.
  • Survival time was defined as the interval from dialysis initiation to death from CKD.

Main Results:

  • 26.6% of patients died from CKD, and 17.4% underwent transplantation.
  • Serum uric acid was a significant protective factor, reducing mortality hazard by 21%.
  • Elevated serum phosphorus and older age were associated with increased mortality risk. Serum phosphorus and uric acid levels showed associations with transplant hazard.

Conclusions:

  • High serum phosphorus levels and advanced age are associated with poorer outcomes in CKD patients.
  • Higher serum uric acid levels correlate with improved survival, potentially due to better nutritional status (e.g., protein-rich diet, high albumin).
Abstract

Keywords:
Chronic Kidney DiseaseCompeting RisksRenal TransplantationSurvival Analyses

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