Modeling nitrous oxide mitigation potential of enhanced efficiency nitrogen fertilizers from agricultural systems

Agriculture soils are responsible for a large proportion of global nitrous oxide (N₂O) emissions-a potent greenhouse gas and ozone depleting substance. Enhanced-efficiency nitrogen (N) fertilizers (EENFs) can reduce N₂O emission from N-fertilized soils, but their effect varies considerably due to a combination of factors, including climatic conditions, edaphic characteristics and management practices. In this study, we further developed the DayCent ecosystem model to simulate two EENFs: controlled-release N fertilizers (CRNFs) and nitrification inhibitors (NIs) and evaluated their N₂O mitigation potentials. We implemented a Bayesian calibration method using the sampling importance resampling (SIR) algorithm to derive a joint posterior distribution of model parameters that was informed by N₂O flux measurements from corn production systems a network of experimental sites within the GRACEnet program. The joint posterior distribution can be applied to estimate predictions of N₂O reduction factors when EENFs are adopted in place of conventional urea-based N fertilizer. The resulting median reduction factors were - 11.9% for CRNFs (ranging from -51.7% and 0.58%) and - 26.7% for NIs (ranging from -61.8% to 3.1%), which is comparable to the measured reduction factors in the dataset. By incorporating EENFs, the DayCent ecosystem model is able to simulate a broader suite of options to identify best management practices for reducing N₂O emissions.