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Using SARS-CoV-2 genomic information to estimate the effective reproductive number (Rt) in Peru during March - April
Pedro E Romero1, Milagros Sánchez-Yupari2, Stephanie Montero3
1Departamento de Ciencias Biológicas y Fisiológicas. Facultad de Ciencias y Filosofía, Universidad Peruana Cayetano Heredia, Lima, Perú.
Revista Peruana De Medicina Experimental Y Salud Publica
|September 1, 2021
Summary
Estimating the effective reproductive number (Rt) for SARS-CoV-2 in Peru revealed a decrease during early quarantine, followed by a moderate increase. Genomic surveillance is crucial for understanding COVID-19 transmission dynamics.
Area of Science:
- Epidemiology
- Genomic Surveillance
- Public Health
Background:
- Understanding COVID-19 transmission is vital for effective public health strategies.
- The SARS-CoV-2 pandemic necessitated rapid assessment of transmission dynamics.
- Genomic data provides critical insights into viral evolution and spread.
Purpose of the Study:
- To estimate the effective reproductive number (Rt) of SARS-CoV-2 in Peru during early pandemic stages.
- To analyze the trend of Rt in relation to public health interventions like quarantine.
- To highlight the importance of genomic surveillance for informing policy.
Main Methods:
- Utilized 113 complete SARS-CoV-2 genomes from Peru, sourced from the GISAID database.
- Estimated the effective reproductive number (Rt) using epidemiological data.
- Analyzed Rt trends during March and April 2020.
Main Results:
- The Rt trend in Peru mirrored findings from other international epidemiological reports.
- Rt initially decreased in early March, reaching its lowest point post-quarantine initiation.
- A moderate increase in Rt was observed after the second week of April.
Conclusions:
- Early public health decisions in Peru appeared to influence SARS-CoV-2 transmission rates.
- Genomic surveillance is indispensable for a comprehensive understanding of SARS-CoV-2 transmission and evolution in Peru.
- Integrating genomic and epidemiological data strengthens evidence-based public health policy.

