A novel flowchart to predict mortality and analyse effectiveness of routinely used pharmacological regimens in...

Paraquat is responsible for an extremely high case-fatality rate poisoning. Mortality prediction remains a major issue since evidence to support benefits of routinely used treatments is lacking. We aimed to develop an easy-to-use prediction flowchart not requiring the ingestion time, for which accuracy is frequently questionable, and to evaluate the effectiveness of routinely used pharmacological therapies on mortality. We designed a two-centre cohort study including consecutive paraquat-poisoned adults with confirmed diagnosis based on serum/urine paraquat measurement. We built a flowchart using a multivariate analysis of death predictors and analysed the outcome according to the administered therapies. Overall, 256 patients were enrolled. Mortality rate was 75%. Independent death predictors on admission were serum creatinine (odds ratio [OR], 5.07; 95% confidence interval [CI], 1.97-13.05) and serum paraquat concentration (OR, 2.26; CI, 1.66-3.09). The area-under-the flowchart curve was 0.91. Overall sensitivity and specificity were 81.5% and 94.8%, respectively. More survivors than non-survivors of severe poisoning received methylprednisolone (P = 0.04). While not significantly differing in severity, methylprednisolone-treated patients had better survival (P = 0.04). To conclude, we defined an efficient flowchart to predict mortality in paraquat poisoning at presentation, even if ingestion time is undetermined. Methylprednisolone seems effective to improve the outcome, especially in the most severe cases.