Are electric vehicles cost competitive? A case study for China based on a lifecycle assessment

Area of Science:

• Automotive Engineering
• Environmental Economics
• Sustainable Transportation

Background:

• Electric vehicles (EVs) are promoted for energy security, climate change mitigation, and air pollution reduction.
• The cost competitiveness of EVs versus gasoline vehicles (GV) remains uncertain due to varying industry development and accounting boundaries.
• Existing studies often omit costs from certain lifecycle stages.

Purpose of the Study:

• To estimate the comprehensive lifecycle cost of battery electric vehicles (BEVs), fuel cell vehicles (FCVs), and GVs in China.
• To analyze costs across production, use, disposal, and infrastructure construction, including externalities.
• To project future cost trends and identify cost-saving opportunities for sustainable transport.

Main Methods:

• Application of a comprehensive lifecycle cost model.
• Inclusion of all stages: production, use, disposal, and infrastructure.
• Consideration of externalities for passenger vehicles in China.

Main Results:

• In 2018, BEVs and FCVs were 1.2-5.3 times more expensive than GVs.
• BEVs are projected to become cheaper than GVs after 2025, with a $419 cost advantage by 2030.
• FCVs are projected to have a $527 cost advantage over GVs by 2030.
• Vehicle production costs represent the largest share of total lifecycle costs.

Conclusions:

• BEVs and FCVs show potential for long-term cost competitiveness against GVs.
• Policy and technological advancements are crucial for realizing EV cost parity and advantages.
• Understanding full lifecycle costs is essential for accurate vehicle economic assessments.