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Updated: Oct 21, 2025
03:53
Author Spotlight: Advancements in Multiplex Detection of Respiratory Viruses
Published on: November 10, 2023
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SARS-CoV-2 infections in 165 countries over time
1Department of Biology, University of Oregon, Eugene, OR, USA; Institute of Ecology and Evolution, University of Oregon, Eugene, OR, USA.
Summary
Estimating COVID-19 infections using death data reveals wide variations in detection rates across 165 countries. Confirmed cases alone do not fully represent the pandemic's true scope.
Area of Science:
- Epidemiology
- Infectious Disease Modeling
Background:
- Accurate COVID-19 infection counts are crucial for understanding pandemic dynamics and control measure effectiveness.
- Confirmed cases often underestimate true infection numbers due to asymptomatic cases and testing variations.
Purpose of the Study:
- To estimate the true prevalence of SARS-CoV-2 infections in 165 countries from early 2020 to June 2021.
- To assess the variability in detection rates of COVID-19 infections over time and across different nations.
Main Methods:
- Utilized death statistics, age-dependent infection fatality risks, and stochastic modeling.
- Validated the estimation approach by comparing results with nationwide seroprevalence surveys.
Main Results:
- Estimated infection detection fractions varied significantly by country and time period.
- As of June 25, 2021, estimated cumulative infection fractions were 98% for Peru, 83% for Brazil, and 36% for the United States.
Conclusions:
- Time-resolved infection estimates provide a more accurate picture of the pandemic's progression.
- These estimates enhance the study of factors influencing the COVID-19 pandemic across 165 countries.
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