Spatial Distribution of COVID-19 in Nigeria

The first reported case of the novel coronavirus (COVID 19) in Nigeria was on the 27th of February 2020. Since then, the country has witnessed a steady increase in the number of patients confirmed with the disease. As of April 27th 2021, a total of 164,756 confirmed COVID-19 cases were notified making it the fifth-highest number of cases in the African region. This study aims to determine the spatial distribution of COVID-19 in Nigeria, identify clusters and determine factors associated with COVID-19.

The study used secondary data of COVID-19 cases notified in each of the 36 states and the Federal Capital Territory between 27th February and 9th June, 2020. The Global and Local Moran'sItest were used to identify significant spatial clusters. The negative binomial regression model was used to identify factors associated with COVID-19 and p d" 0.05 was regarded as statistically significant.

The Local Moran I identified Lagos State as the significant cluster for COVID-19 in Nigeria at p<0.05. Higher GDP per capita and lower literacy rates were significantly associated with COVID-19 cases reported by the states while population density, BCG coverage and average temperature were not significantly associated.

The study identified Lagos State as the hotspot for the COVID-19 pandemic in Nigeria. The states with lower literacy rate and higher GDP per capita reported a higher number of COVID-19 cases. Proactive measures are needed to control of the infection in Lagos state while improving the literacy about the disease transmission and control measures.