Does Climate Play Any Role in COVID-19 Spreading?-An Australian Perspective

Compared to other countries, the COVID-19 pandemic did not severely affect Australia as measured by total deaths until mid-2021. Though a substantial number of daily confirmed cases (up to 698) were reported during the second wave, most of them were from the southern state of Victoria. This study examined the possible correlations between climate variables and the number of daily confirmed COVID-19 cases in Victoria, Australia, from 25 January to 31 October 2020. Appropriate regression models and cross-correlation diagnostics were used to examine the effect of temperature, rainfall, solar exposure, and ultraviolet index (UVI) with the number of daily confirmed cases. Significant positive associations were identified for solar exposure and maximum and average UVI for confirmed cases one and 19 days later. Negative associations for these variables were found for confirmed cases five days later. Minimum temperature had a significant negative correlation one day later and a positive effect 21 days later. No significant correlation was found for maximum temperature and rainfall. The most significant relationships were found for confirmed cases 19 days after changes in the meteorological variables. A 1% increase in solar exposure, maximum UVI, and average UVI was associated with a 0.31% (95% CI: 0.13 to 0.51), 0.71% (95% CI: 0.43 to 0.98), and 0.63% (95%CI: 0.20 to 1.61) increase 19 days later in the number of confirmed cases, respectively. The implications of these results can be used in the public health management of any possible future events in Australia. It also highlights the significance of considering the climatic variables and seasonality in all kinds of epidemics and pandemics.