Multivariate NTCP Model of Hypothyroidism After Intensity-Modulated Radiotherapy for Nasopharyngeal Carcinoma

To evaluate the incidence of hypothyroidism in patients with nasopharyngeal carcinoma after intensity-modulated radiotherapy (IMRT), analyze its correlation with multiple influencing factors such as thyroid exposure dose, thyroid volume, and gender, and construct a multivariate-based normal tissue complication probability (NTCP) model for the occurrence of hypothyroidism after IMRT.

The thyroid hormone levels of patients at different points in time before and after radiotherapy were tested, and statistics on the incidence of hypothyroidism after treatment were obtained. The dose-volume data of patients' thyroids were converted into EQD2 equivalent dose values. The correlation between hypothyroidism after radiotherapy and thyroid exposure dose, thyroid volume, gender, and other factors was analyzed, and an NTCP model was constructed.

A total of 69 patients with nasopharyngeal carcinoma were enrolled in this study. Twelve months after radiotherapy, a total of 24 patients (34.8%) developed hypothyroidism. Univariate analysis and multivariate analysis revealed that the average thyroid dose and thyroid volume are the most important factors affecting hypothyroidism after radiotherapy. The NTCP model constructed based on the average dose and thyroid volume has a good degree of fit.

The volume and average dose of the thyroid gland are the key factors affecting the occurrence of hypothyroidism in patients with nasopharyngeal carcinoma after radiotherapy. The NTCP model constructed based on multivariate construction suggests that reducing the average dose of the thyroid to the greatest extent is an effective way to protect thyroid functions.