The J-Curve Association Between Blood Pressure and Mortality in Stroke Survivors

The optimal blood pressure (BP) targets in terms of mortality risk after stroke remain unclear. This study aimed to assess the relationship between BP and mortality in stroke survivors.

We included 1696 participants with self-reported history of stroke aged 18 years and older from the National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey (NHANES) 1999-2014 and NHANES III with public-use linked mortality files from 2015. Baseline systolic BP (SBP) and diastolic BP (DBP) levels were obtained by taking the average of 3 measures. Cox proportional hazard models and restricted cubic splines were conducted to explore the relationship between BP and all-cause mortality.

During a median follow-up period of 5.6 years, 888 deaths occurred. After fully adjusting for confounding factors, SBP displayed a J-curve relationship (nadir 135 mm Hg), while DBP exhibited a reverse J-curve relationship (nadir 73 mm Hg) with the risk of all-cause mortality. However, the J-curve or reverse J-curve pattern between blood pressure and mortality appeared to be limited to individuals with an age >65 years, identifying a nadir of SBP/DBP of 142/73 mm Hg. The risk of mortality followed a linear relationship for SBP and DBP in stroke survivors aged ≤65 years, with risks increasing with higher SBP and lower DBP.

In this cross-sectional study that used national survey data, these data suggest a strong J-curve or reverse J-curve relationship between blood pressure and risk of all-cause mortality, whereas the pattern appears to be limited to individuals with an age >65 years, with a nadir at 142/73 mmHg. However, missing data on stroke type and stroke treatment limits the generalizability. Future prospective studies are needed to determine preferential blood pressure target in patients after stroke.