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Model-driven mitigation measures for reopening schools during the COVID-19 pandemic
Ryan Seamus McGee1, Julian R Homburger2, Hannah E Williams2
1Department of Biology, University of Washington, Seattle, WA 98195; ryansmcgee@gmail.com.
Summary
Implementing mitigation strategies like student cohorting and proactive testing can significantly reduce the risk of severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) outbreaks when reopening schools for in-person learning.
Area of Science:
- Epidemiology
- Public Health
- Mathematical Modeling
Background:
- The COVID-19 pandemic necessitates the urgent reopening of schools for in-person learning.
- Assessing the risks of SARS-CoV-2 transmission within school environments is critical.
- Evaluating the effectiveness of various mitigation strategies is essential for safe school operations.
Purpose of the Study:
- To develop and utilize network-based models to simulate SARS-CoV-2 transmission in primary and secondary schools.
- To quantify the risks associated with returning to in-person learning.
- To evaluate the impact of different mitigation measures on reducing transmission.
Main Methods:
- Development of stochastic, network-based mathematical models.
- Simulation of SARS-CoV-2 transmission dynamics in primary and secondary school settings.
- Analysis of various mitigation strategies, including student cohorting, testing, vaccination, mask-wearing, social distancing, and ventilation.
Main Results:
- Student cohorting can decrease the probability and scale of outbreaks.
- Proactive testing of educators and staff aids in early detection and containment.
- Mitigation measures, when implemented collectively, can reduce transmission risks to acceptable levels.
- Control is more challenging in secondary schools due to student susceptibility and social interaction patterns.
- Regular student testing (1-2 times weekly) is recommended for secondary schools.
- Vaccination of school staff offers protection to individuals and may benefit students.
- Masking, distancing, and ventilation are vital components of any reopening strategy.
Conclusions:
- A combination of mitigation strategies can effectively manage SARS-CoV-2 transmission risks in schools.
- Targeted interventions, such as cohorting and testing, are crucial for safe school reopening.
- Continuous evaluation and adaptation of mitigation measures are necessary throughout the pandemic.
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