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Updated: Oct 20, 2025

An R-Based Landscape Validation of a Competing Risk Model
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Asset pricing during pandemic lockdown.

Yuta Saito1, Jun Sakamoto1

  • 1Kobe International University, 9-1-6 Koyocho-naka, Higashinada-ku Kobe, 658-0032 Hyogo, Japan.

Research in International Business and Finance
|September 14, 2021
PubMed
Summary
This summary is machine-generated.

Pandemic lockdown policies negatively impact asset prices upon implementation. However, lenient lockdowns may enable rapid stock market recovery, as seen during COVID-19.

Keywords:
Asset pricingCCAPMLockdownSIR model

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Area of Science:

  • Economics
  • Pandemic Preparedness
  • Financial Markets

Background:

  • Pandemic-induced lockdowns significantly alter economic activity.
  • The impact of lockdown stringency on financial markets remains a critical question.

Purpose of the Study:

  • To analyze the effects of pandemic lockdown policies on asset prices.
  • To investigate the relationship between lockdown stringency and stock market recovery.

Main Methods:

  • Development of a susceptible-infected-recovered (SIR) model with microeconomic foundations.
  • Qualitative analysis of lockdown policy impacts on labor income and precautionary savings.
  • Empirical analysis using data from advanced economies.
  • Numerical simulations to explore asset price and consumption dynamics.

Main Results:

  • Strengthened lockdown measures are shown to negatively impact asset prices.
  • Empirical data from advanced countries support the negative correlation between lockdown stringency and asset prices.
  • Numerical analysis indicates a V-shaped asset price recovery and L-shaped consumption recession are possible.
  • Asset price recovery is rapid only when lockdowns are not stringent enough to curb new infections.

Conclusions:

  • Lockdown policies have a direct negative effect on asset prices at their inception.
  • Lenient lockdown strategies may inadvertently foster swift stock market recoveries.
  • Findings suggest that less stringent early pandemic lockdowns could explain rapid stock market rebounds observed during the COVID-19 pandemic.