Related Experiment Video
Updated: Oct 20, 2025
Author Spotlight: Advancements in Multiplex Detection of Respiratory Viruses
Published on: November 10, 2023
Is 14-Days a Sensible Quarantine Length for COVID-19? Examinations of Some Associated Issues with a Case Study of
Yasin Khadem Charvadeh1, Grace Y Yi1,2, Yuan Bian1
1Department of Statistical and Actuarial Sciences, University of Western Ontario, London, ON Canada.
Abstract:
To confine the spread of an infectious disease, setting a sensible quarantine time is crucial. To this end, it is imperative to well understand the distribution of incubation times of the disease. Regarding the ongoing COVID-19 pandemic, 14-days is commonly taken as a quarantine time to curb the virus spread in balancing the impacts of COVID-19 on diverse aspects of the society, including public health, economy, and humanity perspectives, etc. However, setting a sensible quarantine time is not trivial and it depends on various underlying factors. In this article, we take an angle of examining the distribution of the COVID-19 incubation time using likelihood-based methods. Our study is carried out on a dataset of 178 COVID-19 cases dated from January 20, 2020 to February 29, 2020, with the information of exposure periods and dates of symptom onset collected. To gain a good understanding of possible scenarios, we employ different models to describe incubation times of COVID-19. Our findings suggest that statistically, the 14-day quarantine time may not be long enough to control the probability of an early release of infected individuals to be small. While the size of the study data is not large enough to offer us a definitely acceptable quarantine time, and further in practice, the decision-makers may take account of other factors related to social and economic concerns to set up a practically acceptable quarantine time, our study demonstrates useful methods to determine a reasonable quarantine time from a statistical standpoint. Further, it reveals some associated complexity for fully understanding the COVID-19 incubation time distribution.
Supplementary Information:
The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1007/s12561-021-09320-8.
Insights
Determining an effective quarantine period for infectious diseases like COVID-19 is vital. Statistical analysis of COVID-19 incubation times suggests that a 14-day quarantine may be insufficient to prevent early release of infected individuals.
Area of Science:
- Epidemiology
- Biostatistics
- Public Health
Background:
- Establishing appropriate quarantine durations is critical for controlling infectious disease spread.
- The 14-day quarantine period for COVID-19 was widely adopted, balancing public health, economic, and societal impacts.
- Understanding the distribution of incubation periods is essential for setting evidence-based quarantine times.
Purpose of the Study:
- To statistically examine the distribution of COVID-19 incubation times.
- To evaluate the adequacy of the commonly used 14-day quarantine period.
- To demonstrate statistical methodologies for determining optimal quarantine durations.
Main Methods:
- Likelihood-based statistical methods were employed.
- Analysis was conducted on a dataset of 178 COVID-19 cases with recorded exposure and symptom onset dates (January 20 - February 29, 2020).
- Multiple statistical models were used to characterize incubation period distributions.
Main Results:
- Statistical analysis indicates that a 14-day quarantine may not sufficiently minimize the risk of infected individuals being released early.
- The study highlights the complexity in fully defining the COVID-19 incubation period distribution.
- While the dataset size limits definitive conclusions, the methods provide a statistical basis for quarantine time determination.
Conclusions:
- The 14-day quarantine for COVID-19 may statistically be too short to effectively contain the virus.
- Statistical modeling offers a robust framework for assessing and determining appropriate quarantine lengths.
- Further research with larger datasets and consideration of socio-economic factors is needed for practical quarantine policy.
