[Computed multifactorial analysis influencing long-term survival of gastric cancer radically resected]

During 1960 to 1982, 1,110 patients with gastric cancer were treated in our hospital. Four hundred and one patients were given radical operation and were followed with a rate of 100%. Basing on the multivariant analysis with Apple-plus minicomputer, a mathematical model was developed from joint affect (13 items, 34 factors) to predict the survival after radical operation. Two equations evaluating the prognosis were obtained according to two different methods: I. characteristic vector and stepwise regressive analysis; II. stepwise regressive analysis. The sensitivity of I and II methods was 0.84 and 0.82 in the intra-group check-up, 0.88 and 0.88 in the extra-group check-up, respectively. Their specificity was 0.81 and 0.77 in the intra-group check-up, 0.71 and 0.57 in the extra-group. I is better than II. According to the results of screening and operating, it is shown that there are five factors influencing the five year survival rate of gastric cancer patients, that is, invasion depth, growth fashion, gross type, lymph node metastasis and location of cancer. The five factors are very important in selecting the reasonable radical operation model and judging the prognosis.