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Understanding human vulnerability to climate change: A global perspective on index validation for adaptation planning
Joern Birkmann1, Ali Jamshed1, Joanna M McMillan1
1Institute of Spatial and Regional Planning (IREUS), Pfaffenwaldring 7, 70569, University of Stuttgart, Germany.
The Science of the Total Environment
|September 16, 2021
Summary
Global vulnerability assessments are crucial for climate resilience. Highly vulnerable nations face 15 times greater mortality from climate hazards, highlighting the need for targeted support in disaster risk reduction.
Area of Science:
- Environmental Science
- Social Science
- Disaster Risk Reduction
Background:
- Climate change research has focused on hazard data, with less emphasis on societal vulnerability.
- Global vulnerability assessments using indicators are increasing, but validation remains a challenge.
Purpose of the Study:
- To examine options for validating global vulnerability assessments.
- To analyze the WorldRiskIndex and INFORM index systems.
- To investigate the link between vulnerability levels and disaster outcomes.
Main Methods:
- Review of global vulnerability indicator systems (WorldRiskIndex, INFORM index).
- Statistical validation methods.
- Analysis of the relationship between vulnerability indicators and disaster outcomes (e.g., mortality).
Main Results:
- Mortality from floods, drought, and storms is 15 times higher in highly vulnerable countries compared to low vulnerable ones.
- Validation of global vulnerability assessments is essential for understanding their reliability and uncertainty.
- A strong link exists between societal vulnerability and disaster impacts.
Conclusions:
- Vulnerability assessments provide critical insights into differing starting points for climate-resilient development.
- Prioritization should include regions facing high vulnerability, not solely those with future severe climate hazards.
- Effective validation strengthens the utility of global vulnerability assessments for policy and action.
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