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Resilient planning optimization through spatially explicit, Bi-directional sociohydrological modeling.

Yoonshin Kwak1, Brian Deal2

  • 1Land Use Evolution and Impact Assessment Modeling Laboratory, University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign, USA.

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Summary

This study introduces a new sociohydrological model to understand urban runoff. It reveals conflicting development preferences and offers solutions for resilient urban planning.

Keywords:
Coupled modelingLand-use changeResilienceSociohydrologySpatial explicitnessSurface runoff

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Area of Science:

  • Urban Hydrology
  • Sociohydrology
  • Complex Systems Theory

Background:

  • Stormwater runoff is a critical urban issue, often studied through limited post-development hydrological analysis.
  • Traditional models struggle with the scale differences between hydrological analysis and policy, and lack spatial explicitness.
  • Urban and ecological systems are intertwined, necessitating a bi-directional sociohydrological approach.

Purpose of the Study:

  • To develop an integrated, finely scaled, spatially explicit sociohydrological modeling system.
  • To project and assess bi-directional sociohydrological impacts of land-use changes.
  • To address limitations in current hydrological modeling for urban planning and policymaking.

Main Methods:

  • Developed a coupled land use/stormwater modeling system.
  • Applied a bi-directional, cell-to-cell interaction simulation.
  • Modeled three land-use scenarios for McHenry County, Illinois, through 2045.

Main Results:

  • Residential and commercial developments show distinct hydrological responses and locational preferences.
  • Identified a conflict: housing prefers proximity to water, while commercial uses avoid runoff-prone areas.
  • Generated quantifiable, location-specific outputs for optimizing development regulations.

Conclusions:

  • Cell-based, forward-looking modeling is essential for understanding complex urban systems.
  • The developed system provides insights for managing contradictory development preferences and enhancing urban resilience to runoff.
  • Supports strategic planning for a resilient built environment by integrating human and natural systems.