Volcanic CO₂ tracks the incubation period of basaltic paroxysms

The ordinarily benign activity of basaltic volcanoes is periodically interrupted by violent paroxysmal explosions ranging in size from Hawaiian to Plinian in the most extreme examples. These paroxysms often occur suddenly and with limited or no precursors, leaving their causal mechanisms still incompletely understood. Two such events took place in summer 2019 at Stromboli, a volcano otherwise known for its persistent mild open-vent activity, resulting in one fatality and damage to infrastructure. Here, we use a post hoc analysis and reinterpretation of volcanic gas compositions and fluxes acquired at Stromboli to show that the two paroxysms were preceded by detectable escalations in volcanic plume CO₂ degassing weeks to months beforehand. Our results demonstrate that volcanic gas CO₂ is a key driver of explosions and that the preparatory periods ahead of explosions in basaltic systems can be captured by precursory CO₂ leakage from deeply stored mafic magma.