Regression in melanoma is significantly associated with a lower regional recurrence rate and better recurrence-free...

The prognostic significance of regression in predicting melanoma recurrences is unknown. We present a large multicenter study correlating regression with recurrence.

The Sentinel Lymph Node Working Group database was queried from 1993 to 2018 for cases with regression data. Clinicopathologic factors were correlated with overall and first-site of recurrence and with recurrence-free survival (RFS).

There were 4790 patients and the median follow-up was 39.6 months. Regression and recurrences were seen in 1081 (22.6%) and 773 (16.1%) cases, respectively. First-site locoregional and distant recurrences were seen in 412 (8.6%) and 352 (7.3%) patients, respectively. Regression was seen in 15.8% and 24.7% of all cases with and without recurrences (p < 0.0001), respectively, while regression was seen in 14.3% and 17.9% of first-site locoregional and distant recurrent cases, respectively, compared with 23.3% and 22.9% of patients with regression and without first-site locoregional and distant recurrences, respectively (p = 0.29). On multivariable analysis, after controlling for age, gender, thickness, ulceration, lymphovascular invasion, and sentinel lymph node status, regression significantly predicted improved RFS (p = 0.004) and fewer first-site regional recurrences (p = 0.017).

Our data suggest that regression is a favorable prognostic marker in melanoma and predicts significantly better RFS and decreased first-site regional recurrences.