Current and future trade in livestock products

Area of Science:

• Agricultural Economics
• Global Food Systems
• Veterinary Public Health

Background:

• Rising global food demand is driven by increasing per capita consumption, economic growth, and urbanization, particularly in developing nations.
• These trends are shifting dietary patterns, increasing livestock product consumption, and pressuring food systems and veterinary services.
• Animal diseases, such as African swine fever and COVID-19, significantly impact international trade dynamics.

Purpose of the Study:

• To summarize current meat trade patterns and project future trends up to 2050.
• To analyze the impact of animal disease status on international livestock product trade.
• To assess the evolving role of veterinary services in facilitating global trade.

Main Methods:

• Analysis of published statistics on demand for and international trade in livestock products at national and regional levels.
• Utilization of an integrated model of the global agricultural and food system for projections.
• Consideration of the effects of ongoing animal disease outbreaks on trade dynamics.

Main Results:

• Trade patterns are consistent with growing populations, increasing incomes, and changing diets in developing countries.
• Slow expansion of livestock production and significant impacts of national disease status on livestock trade were identified.
• Projections indicate increased consolidation of production and exports among a few countries for most analyzed livestock products.

Conclusions:

• Marked increases in livestock product trade are projected, suggesting a changing role for veterinary services in trade facilitation and extension.
• The findings highlight the critical link between animal health, trade, and global food security.
• Adapting veterinary services is crucial to manage future trade complexities and ensure sustainable livestock sector development.